This section contains summaries of the main useful products developed thanks to the case studies activity. Links to the information sheets are also provided in the section “Case Studies” , for each specific sectors: Energy, Tourism, Wildfires and Integrated case study.
Since the early stages of CLIM-RUN, most of the stakeholders involved in the North Adriatic case study, especially local authorities, asked for climate information about sea-level rise, especially when relative to those extreme events that cause flooding (‘acqua alta’ in Venice Lagoon) or other damages. However, not all the factors that can determine changes in sea level height can be accurately quantified in the available climate simulations. We report some results about the capability of state-of-the art numerical models in reproducing the observed sea level anomalies in the North Adriatic sub-basin. Moreover, as requested by local stakeholders, climate projections for sea level rise in the Mediterranean basin, taking into account some of the most relevant factors potentially affecting the sea level, are here shown. However, more research dedicated to this topics seems to be needed in order to compute all the key components of regional sea level on Mediterranean coasts and to provide reliable climate information and projections at local scale. To achieve this goal, several research initiatives at European and International level are focused on sea level.
Authors: Alessandro Dell’Aquila (ENEA), Alessio Bellucci (CMCC), Samuel Somot (CNRM)
Tourism climate indexes (TCI) are commonly used to describe the climate conditions suitable for tourism activities, in a planning, investing or weather forecasting perspective. The ‘reference’ TCI was defined by Mieczkowski (1985). In the context of climate change, there is a renewed need for applications in a longer-term perspective, notably to estimate the economic impacts of climate change on tourism. Therefore, it is important to understand better users’ needs and data issues, so as to specify better tailored indexes.
Authors: Clotilde Dubois (CNRM), Ghislain Dubois (TEC)
In the future, the spring season could become a more popular season than the summer season for some outdoor activities (if conditions are optimal in terms of sunshine, temperature etc.). Changing practices are already being observed. This can pose problems for tourism operators (in terms of logistics for camping places and mountain refuges, for instance), who are not currently prepared to operate in the spring season. Having access to climate projections on spring conditions (temperature, sunshine and snowfall) would allow institutional actors to develop a strategic vision for such changing conditions, and help actors in the field prepare themselves and improve organisation for any significant increases in clients during spring.
Authors: Adeline Cauchy (TEC), Clotilde Dubois (CNRM)
Extreme weather events (i.e. heavy precipitations, storms, floods), together with increasing exposure and vulnerability patterns and changing climate, are expected to cause more severe impacts to coastal societies and ecosystems. In urban areas the probability of pluvial flood is particularly high and damages are significant therefore an assessment of pluvial flood risk for future climate scenarios is necessary in order to define adaptation plans and increase cities resilience to climate change.
Authors: Sperotto A. (Ca’ Foscari), Torresan S. (CMCC/Ca’ Foscari), Gallina V. (CMCC/Ca’ Foscari), Furlan E. (Ca’ Foscari), Critto A. (CMCC/Ca’ Foscari), Marcomini A. (CMCC/Ca’ Foscari)
Sea level changes have important impacts on coastal regions, contributing to beach erosion, damages associated with floods and storms and intrusion of salt in fresh water streams. These impacts, in turn, heavily affect Mediterranean countries, whose coastal economies strongly rely on shore activities. More specifically, sea-level rise is a prominent issue for the North Adriatic case study area both considering the vulnerability of fragile ecosystems such as coastal lagoons, and the concentration of cultural and socio-economic values.
Authors: Torresan S. (CMCC/Ca’ Foscari), Gallina V. (CMCC/Ca’ Foscari), Furlan E. (Ca’ Foscari), Critto A. (CMCC/Ca’ Foscari), Marcomini A. (CMCC/Ca’ Foscari)
The coastal zone of the North Adriatic Sea is a representative example of Mediterranean coastal zone including various fragile ecosystems such as coastal wetlands and lagoons, and high value cultural and socio-economic locations (e.g. the city of Venice). Moreover, the Northern Adriatic coastal zone is considered to be particularly vulnerable to the increase in flood risk, which is an expected outcome of climate change. Here we explore the predictive capabilities of a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system (the CMCC-SPS), applied to the occurrence of heavy precipitation events over Europe, with a particular focus on the Northern Adriatic region.
Authors: Alessio Bellucci (CMCC), Andrea Borrelli (CMCC), Stefano Materia (CMCC), Silvio Gualdi (CMCC)
IS20-Local climate change projections and associated uncertainty in the representation of intense sea level pressure events: The North Adriatic case study
Climate variability and change in the Mediterranean basin and in the local sub-basins (such as the North Adriatic) is a subject of increasing interest to people in the region. However, the numerical climate projections available for specific geographical areas such as the North Adriatic basin do not completely agree in the foreseen changes, in particular in the future projections of intense events characterised by large negative anomalies of sea level pressure. The results shown here do indeed suggest that over the North Adriatic region, any change in this type of intense event is uncertain before the mid-century using the current generation of climate models. Issues relating to uncertainty in climate projections associated with a multi-model ensemble approach (which is recommended good practice) need to be correctly communicated to end-users and considered when assessing potential changes in risk.
Authors: Sandro Calmanti (ENEA), Alessandro Dell’Aquila (ENEA)
Climate variability and change in the Mediterranean basin and in the local sub-basins (such as the North Adriatic) is a subject of increasing interest to people in the region. However, the climate projections available for specific geographical areas such as the North Adriatic basin do not completely agree in the foreseen changes, in particular for the seasonal averages of rainfall. This does not automatically imply the unsuitability of such projections for decision making. Rather, such results could suggest that the North Adriatic lies in a ‘transition’ zone between those regions projected to become drier (i.e. the southern Mediterranean) and those projected to become wetter (Central-Northern Europe). Thus issues relating to uncertainty in climate projections associated with a multi-model ensemble approach (which is recommended good practice) need to be correctly communicated to end-users.
Authors: Sandro Calmanti (ENEA), Alessandro Dell’Aquila (ENEA)
Mediterranean Europe, and Greece in particular, are regions vulnerable to increased fire risk due to changing climatic conditions. The analysis of fire risk for regions where forest fires represent a major hazard can provide wildfire stakeholders with a better understanding of what they need from climate services. To demonstrate the potential value of the climate services to a broad audience (i.e. Short-term fire planning, long- term fire policy making and educational stakeholders), informative training tools are required.
Authors: C. Giannakopoulos (NOA), V. Tenentes (NOA), A. Karali (NOA)
Mediterranean Europe, and Greece in particular, is likely to suffer potentially increased fire risk due to changing climatic conditions. Forest fires are highly sensitive to climate change because fire behavior responds immediately to fuel moisture, which is affected by precipitation, relative humidity, air temperature and wind speed. Thus the projected increase in temperature will increase fuel dryness and reduce relative humidity and this effect will worsen in those regions where rainfall decreases. Accordingly, increases in climate extreme events are expected to have a great impact on forest fire vulnerability.
Authors: C. Giannakopoulos (NOA), A. Karali (NOA), A. Roussos (NOA)